Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- James HardenAssists5
- Donovan MitchellRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q416.9LeBron James defensive rebound106–114
- Q416.9Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–114
- Q421.1Jaylen Brown makes driving dunk (VJ Edgecombe assists)106–114
- Q427.2Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2106–112
- Q427.2Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2105–112
- Q427.2Jaylen Brown personal foul104–112
- Q432.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2104–112
- Q432.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2104–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:25Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)CLE 92 – 87 PHI · PHI 21% → 31% +11PHI 21% → 31%+11 pts
- Q48:37James Harden makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 95 – 89 PHI · CLE 62% → 75% +13CLE 62% → 75%+13 pts
- Q46:54Joel Embiid makes 16-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CLE 95 – 96 PHI · PHI 47% → 58% +11PHI 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q46:08Jaylen Brown makes 20-foot fade away jump shotCLE 95 – 98 PHI · PHI 58% → 69% +11PHI 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q42:51James Harden makes 26-foot running jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 100 – 104 PHI · CLE 6% → 19% +12CLE 6% → 19%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML CLE +120 / PHI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- CLE +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.0 – 119.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +64 | CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 11th of 301556 | Elo rating | 152914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–60 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 52–48 | 45–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–3 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Mar 9PHI 101 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 16CLE 117 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Jan 14CLE 133 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 50%Miss
- Nov 5PHI 121 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 129 @ PHI 132Picked CLE 77%Miss
- Dec 21PHI 99 @ CLE 126Picked CLE 77%Hit
- Nov 13CLE 114 @ PHI 106Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 29PHI 114 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit