New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points22
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–94
- Q417.7Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound108–94
- Q422.2Dalen Terry misses running layup108–94
- Q428.1Pacome Dadiet lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)108–94
- Q441.9Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound108–94
- Q444.4Dalen Terry misses 10-foot fade away jump shot108–94
- Q454.8Dalen Terry defensive rebound108–94
- Q456.6Tyler Kolek misses 12-foot step back jumpshot108–94
- Q41:03Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound108–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:37Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)NY 76 – 70 PHI · PHI 25% → 34% +9PHI 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q37.1Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)NY 85 – 76 PHI · NY 70% → 80% +10NY 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q48:54Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 88 – 84 PHI · PHI 22% → 35% +12PHI 22% → 35%+12 pts
- Q48:39Josh Hart makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 90 – 84 PHI · NY 66% → 74% +9NY 66% → 74%+9 pts
- Q47:03Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 95 – 86 PHI · NY 77% → 87% +10NY 77% → 87%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML NY +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- PHI 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 39.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 105.5 – 109.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1712 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +55 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +77 Elo | NY 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301712 | Elo rating | 155312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–43 | 50–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–35 | 27–17 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 43–48 | 44–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 15–5 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.
- May 6PHI 102 @ NY 108PlayoffsPicked NY 79%Hit
- May 4PHI 98 @ NY 137PlayoffsPicked NY 71%Hit
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit