Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints33
- Joel EmbiidAssists8
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints24
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–97
- Q40.4shot clock turnover113–97
- Q423.2Kyle Lowry defensive rebound113–97
- Q424.4Amari Williams misses free throw 2 of 2113–97
- Q424.4Amari Williams makes free throw 1 of 2113–97
- Q424.4Kyle Lowry shooting foul113–96
- Q424.4Amari Williams offensive rebound113–96
- Q425.4Amari Williams misses layup113–96
- Q440.0Dominick Barlow makes free throw 2 of 2113–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:43Paul George makes 27-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 88 – 86 BOS · PHI 31% → 43% +12PHI 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q48:57Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 90 – 89 BOS · BOS 44% → 59% +14BOS 44% → 59%+14 pts
- Q47:37Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 94 – 92 BOS · BOS 37% → 52% +15BOS 37% → 52%+15 pts
- Q47:03Neemias Queta makes alley oop layup (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 97 – 94 BOS · BOS 35% → 46% +10BOS 35% → 46%+10 pts
- Q45:58Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 100 – 94 BOS · PHI 57% → 73% +16PHI 57% → 73%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML PHI +340 / BOS -440
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.4%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -359
- PHI +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.0 – 112.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1696 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | +45 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +185 Elo | BOS 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 16th of 301523 | Elo rating | 16963rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–40 | 51–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 36–26 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–44 | 31–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–11 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
- Apr 26BOS 128 @ PHI 96PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Hit
- Apr 24BOS 108 @ PHI 100PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Apr 21PHI 111 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Miss
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss