Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists11
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Celtics- Baylor ScheiermanPoints30
- Baylor ScheiermanAssists7
- Luka GarzaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–113
- Q40.1Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound108–113
- Q41.9Desmond Bane misses 23-foot three point jumper108–113
- Q42.7Magic offensive team rebound108–113
- Q45.5Paolo Banchero misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot108–113
- Q47.9Desmond Bane enters the game for Goga Bitadze108–113
- Q47.9Magic Full timeout108–113
- Q47.9Jordan Walsh makes free throw 2 of 2108–113
- Q47.9Goga Bitadze enters the game for Desmond Bane108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:23Baylor Scheierman makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 77 – 86 BOS · BOS 50% → 62% +11BOS 50% → 62%+11 pts
- Q45:05John Tonje makes 26-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)ORL 95 – 104 BOS · BOS 73% → 87% +13BOS 73% → 87%+13 pts
- Q42:00Desmond Bane makes 24-foot running jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 104 – 108 BOS · ORL 6% → 21% +15ORL 6% → 21%+15 pts
- Q436.4Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 108 – 108 BOS · ORL 10% → 55% +44ORL 10% → 55%+44 pts
- Q431.7Luka Garza makes 28-foot turnaround jump shot (Dalano Banton assists)ORL 108 – 111 BOS · BOS 46% → 92% +46BOS 46% → 92%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -12.5
- ML ORL -750 / BOS +525
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- ORL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −35.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 48.9%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -551
- BOS +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 117.5 – 105.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1684 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −175 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Neemias Queta −44, Payton Pritchard −39, Nikola Vucevic −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.9 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 16th of 301521 | Elo rating | 16843rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−175 Elo- Neemias Queta sprained right toe−44 Elo
- Payton Pritchard plantar fasciitis left foot−39 Elo
- Nikola Vucevic right finger−22 Elo
- Sam Hauser low back muscle spasms−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–43 | 48–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 34–24 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–37 | 30–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–9 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.
- Nov 23ORL 129 @ BOS 138Picked BOS 62%Hit
- Nov 9BOS 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 59%Miss
- Nov 7BOS 110 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Apr 29ORL 89 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 84%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 107 @ ORL 98PlayoffsPicked BOS 73%Hit
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 86 @ BOS 103PlayoffsPicked BOS 85%Hit