Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints25
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints23
- Lachlan OlbrichAssists5
- Lachlan OlbrichRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–103
- Q415.1Jase Richardson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Noah Penda assists)127–103
- Q430.9Jevon Carter defensive rebound125–103
- Q433.5Yuki Kawamura misses 28-foot three point jumper125–103
- Q445.6Jevon Carter makes two point shot125–103
- Q41:08Leonard Miller makes 1-foot dunk (Yuki Kawamura assists)123–103
- Q41:28Jase Richardson makes 1-foot dunk (Jevon Carter assists)123–101
- Q41:30Mac McClung bad pass
turnover (Jase Richardson steals)121–101
- Q41:43Alex Morales out of bounds lost ball turnover121–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:38Franz Wagner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 12 – 11 CHI · ORL 86% → 89% +3ORL 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q11:01Tre Jones makes 24-foot three pointer (Lachlan Olbrich assists)ORL 25 – 25 CHI · CHI 10% → 14% +4CHI 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q29:39Anthony Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 35 – 30 CHI · ORL 88% → 91% +3ORL 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q28:10Jamal Cain makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 40 – 34 CHI · ORL 89% → 92% +3ORL 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q22:33Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointerORL 57 – 49 CHI · ORL 90% → 93% +3ORL 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -16.5
- ML ORL -1350 / CHI +800
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 73.2%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -838
- CHI +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 131.5 – 115.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | −3 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −3, Zach Collins −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +175 Elo | ORL 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 81.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 80.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 121.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −4.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 116.022nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.9 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 18–2221st of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 17th of 301512 | Elo rating | 137323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−3 Elo- Anfernee Simons left hand−3 Elo
- Zach Collins right toe−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–43 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 44–36 | 36–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–4 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jan 2ORL 114 @ CHI 121Picked ORL 64%Miss
- Dec 1CHI 120 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 110 @ ORL 98Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Mar 6CHI 125 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 74%Miss
- Nov 27CHI 119 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ORL 99 @ CHI 102Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Apr 7CHI 98 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Feb 10CHI 108 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 57%Hit