Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints21
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–123
- Q411.6shot clock turnover91–123
- Q436.5Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound91–123
- Q438.1Quentin Grimes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot91–123
- Q444.7Baylor Scheierman makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jordan Walsh assists)91–123
- Q448.8Jordan Walsh defensive rebound91–120
- Q449.8Hugo Gonzalez blocks Dominick Barlow 's 5-foot dunk91–120
- Q41:01Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard91–120
- Q41:01Celtics Full timeout91–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 87% → 90% +3BOS 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q110:57Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point shotPHI 3 – 4 BOS · PHI 10% → 13% +3PHI 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q19:36Jayson Tatum makes 16-foot fade away jump shotPHI 6 – 8 BOS · BOS 85% → 88% +2BOS 85% → 88%+2 pts
- Q18:25Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three pointer (Jayson Tatum assists)PHI 7 – 11 BOS · BOS 86% → 89% +3BOS 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q11:19Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 18 – 29 BOS · BOS 92% → 94% +2BOS 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML PHI +575 / BOS -850
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.9%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -604
- PHI +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.5 – 115.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1691 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +33 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +229 Elo | BOS 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 15th of 301528 | Elo rating | 16913rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 34–24 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 30–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–8 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 25PHI 118 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 78%Miss