Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints17
- Quenton JacksonAssists6
- Micah PotterRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–94
- Q44.0VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound105–94
- Q46.6Quenton Jackson misses 24-foot three point jumper105–94
- Q49.8Tyrese Maxey lost ball turnover (Ethan Thompson steals)105–94
- Q411.3Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound105–94
- Q414.1Ethan Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper105–94
- Q424.2Tyrese Maxey makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot105–94
- Q445.1Kobe Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)103–94
- Q452.7Jay Huff defensive rebound103–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:51Jarace Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)PHI 62 – 60 IND · IND 12% → 17% +5IND 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q35:56Jay Huff makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Slawson assists)PHI 72 – 70 IND · IND 13% → 19% +6IND 13% → 19%+6 pts
- Q35:00Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 77 – 70 IND · PHI 85% → 91% +5PHI 85% → 91%+5 pts
- Q49:23Obi Toppin makes 3-foot dunk (Ethan Thompson assists)PHI 91 – 87 IND · IND 11% → 16% +5IND 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q48:51Tyrese Maxey makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 93 – 87 IND · PHI 84% → 89% +5PHI 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -14.5
- ML PHI -1100 / IND +700
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.9%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -733
- IND +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 124.5 – 110.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | IND and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | −30 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +122 Elo | PHI 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 112.527th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 120.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −7.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 109.226th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.826th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 11–2829th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 15th of 301516 | Elo rating | 137124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–37 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–16 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 IND in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 24PHI 135 @ IND 114Picked PHI 81%Hit
- Jan 19IND 104 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 69%Hit
- Dec 12IND 105 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Mar 14IND 112 @ PHI 100Picked IND 84%Hit
- Jan 18PHI 102 @ IND 115Picked IND 79%Hit
- Dec 13IND 121 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 69%Miss
- Oct 27PHI 118 @ IND 114Picked IND 75%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 122 @ IND 134Picked PHI 59%Miss