Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints26
- Jarace WalkerAssists8
- Micah PotterRebounds14
Nets- E.J. LiddellPoints26
- Ben SarafAssists6
- E.J. LiddellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–94
- Q416.0shot clock turnover123–94
- Q437.7Taelon Peter defensive rebound123–94
- Q440.3Tyson Etienne misses 20-foot jumper123–94
- Q451.1Taelon Peter out of bounds lost ball turnover123–94
- Q457.2Jalen Slawson defensive rebound123–94
- Q459.2Malachi Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper123–94
- Q41:09Tyson Etienne defensive rebound123–94
- Q41:09Micah Potter misses tip shot123–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Tyson Etienne makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotIND 2 – 3 BKN · BKN 37% → 43% +6BKN 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q110:39E.J. Liddell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)IND 4 – 6 BKN · BKN 39% → 45% +6BKN 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q110:12Ben Saraf makes driving layupIND 4 – 8 BKN · BKN 45% → 49% +4BKN 45% → 49%+4 pts
- Q17:59Ethan Thompson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Quenton Jackson assists)IND 8 – 8 BKN · IND 53% → 59% +6IND 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q11:34Ethan Thompson makes 23-foot three pointer (Kam Jones assists)IND 27 – 14 BKN · IND 79% → 84% +5IND 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -162 / BKN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- IND 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- IND: Elo 48.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -146
- BKN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.0 – 110.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −15 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Nic Claxton −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +9 Elo | BKN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 106.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 107.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–33 | Road vs home | 12–2828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301349 | Elo rating | 130628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−15 Elo- Nic Claxton finger injury−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–42 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 34–35 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 6–3 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Feb 11IND 115 @ BKN 110Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Nov 5BKN 112 @ IND 103Picked IND 69%Miss
- Mar 22BKN 103 @ IND 108Picked IND 83%Hit
- Mar 20BKN 99 @ IND 105Picked IND 73%Hit
- Jan 6IND 113 @ BKN 99Picked IND 81%Hit
- Dec 4IND 90 @ BKN 99Picked IND 59%Miss
- Apr 3IND 111 @ BKN 115Picked IND 60%Miss
- Apr 1BKN 111 @ IND 133Picked IND 74%Hit