Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- AJ GreenPoints20
- Jericho SimsAssists6
- Taurean PrinceRebounds11
Nets- E.J. LiddellPoints21
- Malachi SmithAssists4
- Ben SarafRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–96
- Q42.0Ben Saraf defensive rebound90–96
- Q45.0Taurean Prince misses 28-foot three point jumper90–96
- Q49.1Ben Saraf makes free throw 2 of 290–96
- Q49.1Ben Saraf makes free throw 1 of 290–95
- Q49.1Gary Harris enters the game for Cormac Ryan90–94
- Q49.1Cormac Ryan loose ball foul90–94
- Q49.1Nets defensive team rebound90–94
- Q410.9Ousmane Dieng misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot90–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30Jericho Sims makes layup (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 84 – 86 BKN · MIL 22% → 36% +13MIL 22% → 36%+13 pts
- Q43:11Tyson Etienne makes 19-foot jumper (Ben Saraf assists)MIL 84 – 88 BKN · BKN 65% → 79% +13BKN 65% → 79%+13 pts
- Q42:28Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)MIL 87 – 88 BKN · MIL 18% → 41% +23MIL 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q41:20Tyson Etienne makes driving layupMIL 87 – 90 BKN · BKN 62% → 82% +20BKN 62% → 82%+20 pts
- Q433.3AJ Green makes 28-foot three pointerMIL 90 – 92 BKN · MIL <1% → 17% +16MIL <1% → 17%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -120 / BKN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- MIL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 46.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- BKN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.0 – 108.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1299 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −105 | −23 | MIL: Missing Kevin Porter Jr. −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +24 Elo | BKN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 106.230th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.1 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 107.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 11–2828th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301405 | Elo rating | 129928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−105 Elo- Kevin Porter Jr. right knee surgery−32 Elo
Nets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–43 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 25–26 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Dec 14MIL 82 @ BKN 127Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Nov 29BKN 99 @ MIL 116Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Jan 2BKN 113 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 84%Miss
- Dec 26BKN 111 @ MIL 105Picked MIL 69%Miss
- Dec 8MIL 118 @ BKN 113Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Oct 27MIL 102 @ BKN 115Picked MIL 76%Miss
- Mar 21BKN 108 @ MIL 115Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 27MIL 144 @ BKN 122Picked MIL 68%Hit