Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Cormac RyanPoints22
- Ousmane DiengAssists8
- Cormac RyanRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints21
- VJ EdgecombeAssists11
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–126
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound106–126
- Q40.0Kyle Lowry misses heave jump shot106–126
- Q41.8Alex Antetokounmpo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)106–126
- Q417.5Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound103–126
- Q420.3Kyle Lowry misses 31-foot three point jumper103–126
- Q422.2Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2103–126
- Q422.2Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2102–126
- Q422.2Trendon Watford shooting foul101–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:41AJ Green makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 56 – 55 PHI · MIL 15% → 20% +5MIL 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q226.2Cormac Ryan makes 27-foot three pointer (Ousmane Dieng assists)MIL 62 – 58 PHI · MIL 21% → 28% +7MIL 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q311:00Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotMIL 62 – 60 PHI · PHI 71% → 76% +5PHI 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q310:46Taurean Prince makes 12-foot two point shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)MIL 64 – 60 PHI · MIL 24% → 29% +5MIL 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q310:01Tyrese Maxey makes 12-foot two point shotMIL 64 – 62 PHI · PHI 70% → 75% +5PHI 70% → 75%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -16.5
- ML MIL +800 / PHI -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8.5
- PHI 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 80.3%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -838
- MIL +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 121.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | 0 | MIL: Missing Kevin Porter Jr. −29, Bobby Portis −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +244 Elo | PHI 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 82.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 115.815th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 116.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 22–1817th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 21st of 301405 | Elo rating | 152215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−79 Elo- Kevin Porter Jr. right knee surgery−29 Elo
- Bobby Portis left wrist sprain−21 Elo
76ers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–45 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 26–17 |
| Underdog | 25–27 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Jan 27MIL 122 @ PHI 139Picked PHI 76%Hit
- Dec 5PHI 116 @ MIL 101Picked PHI 51%Hit
- Nov 20PHI 123 @ MIL 114Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Apr 3MIL 126 @ PHI 113Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Feb 9PHI 127 @ MIL 135Picked PHI 60%Miss
- Jan 19PHI 109 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 84%Hit
- Oct 23MIL 124 @ PHI 109Picked MIL 63%Hit
- Mar 14PHI 105 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 67%Hit