Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyson EtiennePoints23
- Malachi SmithAssists10
- Malachi SmithRebounds8
Bucks- AJ GreenPoints35
- Ousmane DiengAssists12
- Taurean PrinceRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–125
- Q41.6shot clock turnover108–125
- Q425.6AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2108–125
- Q425.6AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2108–124
- Q425.6Jalen Wilson personal foul108–123
- Q429.9Trevon Scott personal foul108–123
- Q435.4Tyson Etienne makes free throw 2 of 2108–123
- Q435.4Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Taurean Prince107–123
- Q435.4Tyson Etienne makes free throw 1 of 2107–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Taurean Prince assists)BKN 0 – 3 MIL · MIL 80% → 84% +4MIL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q110:36Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (E.J. Liddell assists)BKN 3 – 3 MIL · BKN 16% → 20% +4BKN 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q19:27Cormac Ryan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)BKN 3 – 10 MIL · MIL 85% → 88% +3MIL 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q22:12Malachi Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 52 – 60 MIL · BKN 8% → 12% +4BKN 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q24.1Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Taurean Prince assists)BKN 54 – 66 MIL · MIL 90% → 93% +3MIL 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -10.5
- ML BKN +380 / MIL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.4%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -400
- BKN +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.0 – 114.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1284 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −88 | BKN: Missing Nic Claxton −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +110 Elo | MIL 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 110.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.6 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–31 | Road vs home | 18–2221st of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 28th of 301284 | Elo rating | 139621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−11 Elo- Nic Claxton right finger−3 Elo
Bucks
−88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–42 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders | 35–45 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Apr 7MIL 90 @ BKN 96Picked MIL 52%Miss
- Dec 14MIL 82 @ BKN 127Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Nov 29BKN 99 @ MIL 116Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Jan 2BKN 113 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 84%Miss
- Dec 26BKN 111 @ MIL 105Picked MIL 69%Miss
- Dec 8MIL 118 @ BKN 113Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Oct 27MIL 102 @ BKN 115Picked MIL 76%Miss
- Mar 21BKN 108 @ MIL 115Picked MIL 67%Hit