Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints23
- Jericho SimsAssists10
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–137
- Q423.6Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 3 of 3111–137
- Q423.6Bucks offensive team rebound110–137
- Q423.6Alex Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 3110–137
- Q423.6Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 3110–137
- Q423.6Wendell Moore Jr. shooting foul109–137
- Q437.5Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound109–137
- Q439.0Alex Antetokounmpo blocks Tolu Smith 's 2-foot two point shot109–137
- Q457.3Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2109–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23AJ Green makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 3 – 0 DET · MIL 7% → 9% +2MIL 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q110:55AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 7 – 2 DET · MIL 8% → 11% +3MIL 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q18:00Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 14 – 12 DET · MIL 7% → 9% +2MIL 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q11:23Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 27 – 27 DET · MIL 6% → 9% +3MIL 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q11:13Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)MIL 27 – 30 DET · DET 91% → 94% +3DET 91% → 94%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 94%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DET -22.5
- ML MIL +1400 / DET -3200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -16
- DET 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 93.0%, market 93.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -1455
- MIL +1455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 100.0 – 122.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −94 | +47 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +448 Elo | DET 93.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 91.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 91.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 93.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +7.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 30–93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 21st of 301398 | Elo rating | 16295th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–44 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 25–26 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 37–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–2 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Dec 6MIL 112 @ DET 124Picked DET 84%Hit
- Dec 3DET 109 @ MIL 113Picked DET 63%Miss
- Nov 22DET 129 @ MIL 116Picked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 13DET 133 @ MIL 140Picked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 11MIL 125 @ DET 119Picked DET 60%Miss
- Dec 3MIL 128 @ DET 107Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Nov 13DET 120 @ MIL 127Picked MIL 70%Hit
- Jan 22MIL 122 @ DET 113Picked MIL 76%Hit