Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds7
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–100
- Q40.176ers offensive team rebound108–100
- Q40.1Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot fade away jump shot108–100
- Q46.0Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2108–100
- Q46.0Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2107–100
- Q46.0Andre Drummond enters the game for Adem Bona106–100
- Q46.0Adem Bona personal take foul106–100
- Q49.2Adem Bona enters the game for Andre Drummond106–100
- Q49.2Paul George personal take foul106–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:42Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)BOS 84 – 85 PHI · PHI 30% → 44% +14PHI 30% → 44%+14 pts
- Q42:19Andre Drummond makes 2-foot dunk (Paul George assists)BOS 97 – 96 PHI · PHI 20% → 35% +16PHI 20% → 35%+16 pts
- Q41:57Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three pointer (Nikola Vucevic assists)BOS 100 – 96 PHI · BOS 65% → 88% +23BOS 65% → 88%+23 pts
- Q41:41Paul George makes 3-foot two point shotBOS 100 – 98 PHI · PHI 11% → 25% +14PHI 11% → 25%+14 pts
- Q41:17Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 103 – 98 PHI · BOS 77% → 96% +18BOS 77% → 96%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -355 / PHI +280
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.3%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -296
- PHI +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.0 – 103.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1673 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −4 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +134 Elo | BOS 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.0 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301673 | Elo rating | 154614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–34 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–25 | 27–17 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–54 | 41–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–5 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Apr 21PHI 111 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Miss
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit