Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- VJ EdgecombePoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints36
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–97
- Q411.1shot clock turnover111–97
- Q435.2Luka Garza makes two point shot (Ron Harper Jr. assists)111–97
- Q441.7Luka Garza offensive rebound111–95
- Q443.7Max Shulga misses 25-foot three point jumper111–95
- Q456.6Luka Garza offensive rebound111–95
- Q41:01Ron Harper Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–95
- Q41:09Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot111–95
- Q41:30VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound108–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:47Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)PHI 84 – 80 BOS · BOS 42% → 54% +13BOS 42% → 54%+13 pts
- Q49:53Justin Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 89 – 82 BOS · PHI 49% → 62% +14PHI 49% → 62%+14 pts
- Q46:57Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 91 – 87 BOS · BOS 29% → 44% +15BOS 29% → 44%+15 pts
- Q45:39Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 94 – 89 BOS · PHI 47% → 65% +18PHI 47% → 65%+18 pts
- Q45:06Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 97 – 89 BOS · PHI 67% → 82% +15PHI 67% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML PHI +575 / BOS -850
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 81.9%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -604
- PHI +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.5 – 116.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +38 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +262 Elo | BOS 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 16th of 301519 | Elo rating | 16992nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–39 | 50–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 35–24 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–42 | 30–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–9 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit