Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints32
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints26
- Joel EmbiidAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–96
- Q422.8shot clock turnover128–96
- Q444.1Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound128–96
- Q447.4Jabari Walker misses 24-foot three point jumper128–96
- Q452.9Hugo Gonzalez out of bounds lost ball turnover128–96
- Q458.2Luka Garza defensive rebound128–96
- Q459.8Jabari Walker misses 4-foot pullup jump shot128–96
- Q41:04Jabari Walker offensive rebound128–96
- Q41:08Dominick Barlow misses 23-foot three point jumper128–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:41Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BOS 12 – 13 PHI · PHI 30% → 36% +6PHI 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q14:30Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 15 – 13 PHI · BOS 63% → 70% +6BOS 63% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:56Payton Pritchard makes 29-foot running pullup jump shot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 18 – 13 PHI · BOS 70% → 75% +6BOS 70% → 75%+6 pts
- Q12:36Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)BOS 23 – 16 PHI · PHI 17% → 21% +5PHI 17% → 21%+5 pts
- Q149.3Baylor Scheierman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 28 – 16 PHI · BOS 82% → 86% +4BOS 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -230 / PHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.1%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -202
- PHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.5 – 103.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1678 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +78 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +64 Elo | BOS 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.0 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301678 | Elo rating | 154115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–35 | 46–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–26 | 27–17 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–55 | 41–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–5 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
- Apr 24BOS 108 @ PHI 100PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Apr 21PHI 111 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Miss
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit