Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–108
- Q412.6Jalen Brunson defensive rebound102–108
- Q416.0Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot102–108
- Q422.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound102–108
- Q422.1Miles McBride misses free throw 2 of 2102–108
- Q422.1Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns102–108
- Q422.1Miles McBride makes free throw 1 of 2102–108
- Q422.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul102–107
- Q425.0Knicks Full timeout102–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:49Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)PHI 92 – 92 NY · NY 51% → 64% +13NY 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q46:52Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 99 – 96 NY · PHI 38% → 54% +16PHI 38% → 54%+16 pts
- Q46:25Josh Hart makes 24-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)PHI 99 – 99 NY · NY 45% → 61% +17NY 45% → 61%+17 pts
- Q45:06Jalen Brunson makes 17-foot pullup jump shotPHI 99 – 101 NY · NY 60% → 72% +12NY 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q43:46Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot turnaround jump shotPHI 99 – 103 NY · NY 72% → 83% +11NY 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML PHI +350 / NY -455
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 80.5%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -369
- PHI +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 101.5 – 112.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1710 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +17 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Mitchell Robinson −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +246 Elo | NY 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 30 |
| 12th of 301555 | Elo rating | 17102nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+17 Elo- Mitchell Robinson illness−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–41 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 39–34 |
| Underdog | 22–24 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46 | 43–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–14 NY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.
- May 4PHI 98 @ NY 137PlayoffsPicked NY 71%Hit
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit