New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints29
- Josh HartAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds17
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints24
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Dyson DanielsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–109
- Q41.2Jalen Brunson bad pass
turnover (Jonathan Kuminga steals)108–109
- Q412.5Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mikal Bridges108–109
- Q412.5Jalen Brunson enters the game for Landry Shamet108–109
- Q412.5Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum108–109
- Q412.5Knicks Full timeout108–109
- Q412.7CJ McCollum makes 15-foot fade away jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)108–109
- Q416.4Mikal Bridges enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns108–107
- Q416.4Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson108–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:23OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 102 – 103 ATL · NY 18% → 41% +23NY 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q41:41Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 105 – 105 ATL · NY 20% → 50% +30NY 20% → 50%+30 pts
- Q41:03Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotNY 107 – 105 ATL · NY 50% → 76% +26NY 50% → 76%+26 pts
- Q452.6Jalen Johnson makes two point shotNY 108 – 107 ATL · ATL 12% → 35% +23ATL 12% → 35%+23 pts
- Q412.7CJ McCollum makes 15-foot fade away jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)NY 108 – 109 ATL · ATL 22% → 78% +57ATL 22% → 78%+57 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -112 / ATL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- NY: Elo 53.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.0 – 106.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +42 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +24 Elo | NY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 118.56th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 116.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +2.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 114.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 5th of 301649 | Elo rating | 156412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–41 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46 | 41–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–5 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.
- Apr 20ATL 107 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 18ATL 102 @ NY 113PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Hit
- Apr 6NY 108 @ ATL 105Picked ATL 53%Miss
- Jan 2ATL 111 @ NY 99Picked NY 62%Miss
- Dec 27NY 128 @ ATL 125Picked NY 66%Hit
- Apr 5NY 121 @ ATL 105Picked NY 53%Hit
- Feb 12ATL 148 @ NY 149Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 20ATL 110 @ NY 119Picked NY 72%Hit