Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints19
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Knicks- Miles McBridePoints21
- Jose AlvaradoAssists7
- Ariel HukportiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–96
- Q411.3shot clock turnover110–96
- Q435.4Pacome Dadiet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)110–96
- Q449.6Ryan Kalkbrenner makes two point shot110–93
- Q449.6Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound108–93
- Q451.2Ariel Hukporti blocks Liam McNeeley 's 2-foot driving layup108–93
- Q41:11Sion James defensive rebound108–93
- Q41:14Kevin McCullar Jr. misses 28-foot three point jumper108–93
- Q41:22Dillon Jones defensive rebound108–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:56Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 5 – 3 NY · CHA 84% → 88% +4CHA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q18:29Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)CHA 5 – 6 NY · NY 12% → 16% +4NY 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q18:20LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointer (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 8 – 6 NY · CHA 84% → 88% +4CHA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q14:11Miles McBride makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)CHA 15 – 14 NY · NY 11% → 15% +4NY 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q11:00Grant Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 25 – 20 NY · CHA 86% → 90% +4CHA 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -14.5
- ML CHA -900 / NY +600
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3
- CHA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −23.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 62.6%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -630
- NY +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 116.0 – 101.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | −149 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +90 Elo | CHA 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 116.810th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +6.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 30–94th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 10th of 301584 | Elo rating | 16554th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−149 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–31 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–13 | 34–32 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–49 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–8 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.