Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Sandro MamukelashviliPoints17
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–112
- Q40.2shot clock turnover95–112
- Q424.2Jose Alvarado defensive rebound95–112
- Q427.1Alijah Martin misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot95–112
- Q434.8Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound95–112
- Q437.3Pacome Dadiet misses 28-foot three point jumper95–112
- Q450.1Jonathan Mogbo makes layup (Jamison Battle assists)95–112
- Q41:02Jose Alvarado makes free throw 2 of 293–112
- Q41:02Jose Alvarado makes free throw 1 of 293–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:00Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 3 – 2 NY · TOR 27% → 32% +5TOR 27% → 32%+5 pts
- Q110:21Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)TOR 3 – 5 NY · NY 68% → 73% +5NY 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q12:23Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 19 – 20 NY · TOR 24% → 30% +6TOR 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q211:45Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)TOR 21 – 25 NY · NY 70% → 76% +6NY 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q210:37Jose Alvarado makes 24-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)TOR 21 – 30 NY · NY 79% → 84% +5NY 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML TOR +220 / NY -270
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NY: Elo 72.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -234
- TOR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 106.0 – 112.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +18 | TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +171 Elo | NY 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 110.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 29–94th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 14th of 301536 | Elo rating | 16484th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−4 Elo- RJ Barrett right knee soreness−27 Elo
Knicks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–38 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–23 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–49 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–12 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.