Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–100
- Q41.5shot clock turnover118–100
- Q423.5Marcus Sasser defensive rebound118–100
- Q423.5Marcus Sasser blocks Tre Mann 's 6-foot driving layup118–100
- Q435.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound118–100
- Q437.9Marcus Sasser misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–100
- Q458.3Paul Reed defensive rebound118–100
- Q41:00Tre Mann misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot118–100
- Q41:15Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)118–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:47LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)DET 74 – 76 CHA · CHA 57% → 66% +9CHA 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q37:36Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 77 – 76 CHA · DET 34% → 43% +9DET 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q35:53Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)DET 82 – 83 CHA · CHA 53% → 63% +10CHA 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q33:44Tobias Harris makes 25-foot running jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 87 – 83 CHA · DET 44% → 55% +11DET 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q49:38Kevin Huerter makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 102 – 92 CHA · DET 74% → 84% +10DET 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML DET +180 / CHA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1
- CHA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 54.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CHA -192
- DET +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.5 – 116.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +69 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +32 Elo | CHA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 116.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 111.36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.0 | Margin | +5.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–13 | Road vs home | 21–1920th of 30 |
| 28th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 5th of 301631 | Elo rating | 16019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–37 | 50–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 23–12 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–42 | 32–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–2 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Feb 9DET 110 @ CHA 104Picked DET 55%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 86 @ DET 112Picked DET 80%Hit
- Feb 9CHA 102 @ DET 112Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 3CHA 94 @ DET 98Picked DET 72%Hit
- Nov 21DET 121 @ CHA 123Picked DET 57%Miss
- Nov 6DET 107 @ CHA 108Picked DET 51%Miss
- Mar 11CHA 97 @ DET 114Picked DET 53%Hit
- Jan 24CHA 106 @ DET 113Picked DET 53%Hit