Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints32
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–106
- Q41.0Knicks offensive team rebound107–106
- Q41.0Mikal Bridges misses 12-foot fade away jump shot107–106
- Q44.0Josh Hart defensive rebound107–106
- Q45.6CJ McCollum misses free throw 2 of 2107–106
- Q45.6Dyson Daniels enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu107–106
- Q45.6Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Miles McBride107–106
- Q45.6Hawks offensive team rebound107–106
- Q45.6CJ McCollum misses free throw 1 of 2107–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:08CJ McCollum makes driving layupATL 101 – 100 NY · ATL 36% → 56% +19ATL 36% → 56%+19 pts
- Q41:33CJ McCollum makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotATL 103 – 100 NY · ATL 58% → 78% +20ATL 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q41:21Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerATL 103 – 103 NY · NY 20% → 53% +33NY 20% → 53%+33 pts
- Q433.5CJ McCollum makes 14-foot fade away jump shotATL 105 – 103 NY · ATL 48% → 82% +34ATL 48% → 82%+34 pts
- Q48.5Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)ATL 107 – 106 NY · NY <1% → 18% +18NY <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML ATL +200 / NY -245
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NY: Elo 64.6%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -213
- ATL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 106.5 – 112.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +17 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +105 Elo | NY 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301558 | Elo rating | 16545th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–39 | 44–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 35–32 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–42 | 39–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–8 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Apr 18ATL 102 @ NY 113PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Hit
- Apr 6NY 108 @ ATL 105Picked ATL 53%Miss
- Jan 2ATL 111 @ NY 99Picked NY 62%Miss
- Dec 27NY 128 @ ATL 125Picked NY 66%Hit
- Apr 5NY 121 @ ATL 105Picked NY 53%Hit
- Feb 12ATL 148 @ NY 149Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 20ATL 110 @ NY 119Picked NY 72%Hit
- Dec 11ATL 108 @ NY 100Picked NY 75%Miss