Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–100
- Q44.9Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound109–100
- Q44.9Payton Pritchard misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot109–100
- Q48.8VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2109–100
- Q48.8VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 2108–100
- Q48.8Sam Hauser personal take foul107–100
- Q410.2Payton Pritchard makes driving layup107–100
- Q415.4Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2107–98
- Q415.4Neemias Queta enters the game for Baylor Scheierman106–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:40Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 95 – 91 BOS · PHI 51% → 67% +15PHI 51% → 67%+15 pts
- Q45:52Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)PHI 95 – 94 BOS · BOS 30% → 47% +17BOS 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q45:02Jaylen Brown makes 12-foot pullup jump shotPHI 97 – 96 BOS · BOS 34% → 47% +12BOS 34% → 47%+12 pts
- Q42:00Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotPHI 101 – 98 BOS · PHI 58% → 76% +18PHI 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q41:15Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 103 – 98 BOS · PHI 82% → 94% +12PHI 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML PHI +136 / BOS -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 100.5 – 104.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 204.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +75 | −31 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −60 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +24 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 12th of 301562 | Elo rating | 16564th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−31 Elo- Jayson Tatum left knee stiffness−60 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–40 | 51–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 36–28 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 31–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–11 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- Apr 30BOS 93 @ PHI 106PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 28PHI 113 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 26BOS 128 @ PHI 96PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Hit
- Apr 24BOS 108 @ PHI 100PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Apr 21PHI 111 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Miss
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss