Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints18
- Payton PritchardAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Joel EmbiidAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–106
- Q419.7shot clock turnover93–106
- Q419.776ers offensive team rebound93–106
- Q421.7Justin Edwards misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot93–106
- Q443.7Jordan Walsh makes running dunk93–106
- Q446.6Justin Edwards lost ball turnover (Baylor Scheierman steals)91–106
- Q459.8Dalano Banton makes 1-foot two point shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)91–106
- Q41:13Kyle Lowry enters the game for Tyrese Maxey89–106
- Q41:13Justin Edwards personal take foul89–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:06Jaylen Brown makes 29-foot three pointerBOS 36 – 38 PHI · BOS 51% → 58% +8BOS 51% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:21Paul George makes 22-foot three pointerBOS 40 – 49 PHI · PHI 53% → 61% +8PHI 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q21:08Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 44 – 56 PHI · PHI 63% → 71% +8PHI 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q252.2Derrick White makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Vucevic assists)BOS 47 – 56 PHI · BOS 29% → 37% +8BOS 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q311:38Paul George makes 28-foot running jump shot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)BOS 49 – 61 PHI · PHI 64% → 72% +8PHI 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -230 / PHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.6%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -202
- PHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.5 – 104.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1671 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +76 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.0 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 4th of 301671 | Elo rating | 154812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–36 | 47–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–27 | 27–17 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–56 | 42–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–6 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
- Apr 28PHI 113 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 26BOS 128 @ PHI 96PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Hit
- Apr 24BOS 108 @ PHI 100PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Apr 21PHI 111 @ BOS 97PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Miss
- Apr 19PHI 91 @ BOS 123PlayoffsPicked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 1PHI 98 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 11BOS 100 @ PHI 102Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit