Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints17
- Quentin GrimesAssists4
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds5
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists6
- Ariel HukportiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–137
- Q412.0shot clock turnover98–137
- Q435.9Trendon Watford lost ball turnover (Landry Shamet steals)98–137
- Q448.3Ariel Hukporti makes dunk (Pacome Dadiet assists)98–137
- Q449.4Pacome Dadiet offensive rebound98–135
- Q452.0Landry Shamet misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot98–135
- Q41:11Jabari Walker offensive goaltending turnover98–135
- Q41:32Trendon Watford defensive rebound98–135
- Q41:35Landry Shamet misses 25-foot three point jumper98–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:01VJ Edgecombe makes 24-foot three point jumperPHI 8 – 7 NY · PHI 26% → 31% +6PHI 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q16:35Paul George makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 13 – 10 NY · PHI 30% → 36% +6PHI 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q13:57Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 19 – 21 NY · NY 68% → 74% +6NY 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q13:21Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 19 – 24 NY · NY 73% → 79% +5NY 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q12:16OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point shotPHI 21 – 27 NY · NY 75% → 80% +5NY 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML PHI +235 / NY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NY: Elo 63.8%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -249
- PHI +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.5 – 110.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1692 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +81 | +24 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +98 Elo | NY 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 12th of 301573 | Elo rating | 16923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–40 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–17 | 38–34 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 42–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–13 NY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit