Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Pistons- Daniss JenkinsPoints17
- Daniss JenkinsAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–94
- Q412.0Thomas Bryant defensive rebound125–94
- Q414.3Marcus Sasser misses 32-foot three point jumper125–94
- Q422.9Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 4-foot running dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)125–94
- Q426.0Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound123–94
- Q427.9Daniss Jenkins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–94
- Q436.9Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper123–94
- Q445.9Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound120–94
- Q447.4Ronald Holland II misses 27-foot three point jumper120–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:34Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three pointer (Dean Wade assists)CLE 21 – 15 DET · CLE 45% → 52% +7CLE 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q11:34Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 25 – 19 DET · CLE 45% → 52% +7CLE 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q11:12Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 28 – 19 DET · CLE 52% → 59% +7CLE 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q16.7Marcus Sasser makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 28 – 22 DET · DET 40% → 47% +7DET 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q11.7Donovan Mitchell makes 38-foot three point shotCLE 31 – 22 DET · CLE 53% → 60% +7CLE 53% → 60%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML CLE +160 / DET -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 62.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -171
- CLE +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 100.0 – 104.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 204.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +35 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 8th of 301601 | Elo rating | 16425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–56 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–47 | 36–41 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–47 | 45–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–6 DET in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.
- May 15DET 115 @ CLE 94PlayoffsPicked CLE 61%Miss
- May 13CLE 117 @ DET 113PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Miss
- May 11DET 103 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 60%Hit
- May 9DET 109 @ CLE 116PlayoffsPicked CLE 63%Hit
- May 7CLE 97 @ DET 107PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit