Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- James HardenAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–111
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham defensive rebound101–111
- Q47.8James Harden misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot101–111
- Q417.1Daniss Jenkins makes running dunk101–111
- Q419.4Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound101–109
- Q424.1Donovan Mitchell misses 23-foot three point shot101–109
- Q426.0Cavaliers Full timeout101–109
- Q426.0Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2101–109
- Q426.0Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2101–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:52Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 74 – 77 DET · CLE 24% → 34% +10CLE 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q30.9Ronald Holland II makes 29-foot three pointerCLE 76 – 83 DET · DET 70% → 80% +10DET 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q411:04Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 82 – 85 DET · CLE 22% → 33% +11CLE 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q44:50Jalen Duren makes dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)CLE 93 – 95 DET · DET 53% → 66% +13DET 53% → 66%+13 pts
- Q44:13Jalen Duren makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)CLE 93 – 97 DET · DET 66% → 78% +12DET 66% → 78%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML CLE +136 / DET -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 63.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -146
- CLE +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 107.0 – 110.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1637 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +57 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +94 Elo | DET 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 9th of 301606 | Elo rating | 16376th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–53 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–46 | 34–40 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 45–44 | 42–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–3 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Oct 25DET 101 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 83%Hit