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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast

FinalCLE wins series 4-3

Away

Raptors

46-36

102–114

at

Home

Cavaliers

52-30

TOR 26%CLE 74%

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Rocket Arena · NBC, Peacock

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.

CLE favored TOR favored121 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4CLE50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Raptors
Cavaliers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game102–114
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–114
  • Q41.3shot clock turnover102–114
  • Q425.3A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jamal Shead102–114
  • Q425.3Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Jakob Poeltl102–114
  • Q425.3Gradey Dick enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter102–114
  • Q425.3Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for RJ Barrett102–114
  • Q425.3Garrett Temple enters the game for Scottie Barnes102–114
  • Q425.3Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen102–114
  • Q425.3Cavaliers Full timeout102–114

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q28:23Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 39 – 29 CLE · TOR 47% → 54% +8
  2. Q26:23Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)TOR 41 – 34 CLE · CLE 44% → 52% +8
  3. Q22:41Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 47 – 41 CLE · CLE 44% → 52% +8
  4. Q21:11James Harden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)TOR 49 – 46 CLE · CLE 51% → 60% +9
  5. Q242.3Jaylon Tyson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)TOR 49 – 49 CLE · CLE 60% → 68% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cavaliers 74%

StrongHit
TOR 26%CLE 74%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
CLE -8.5
ML TOR +270 / CLE -340
Pre-line forecast
CLE 73%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -4
CLE 66%
Ratings vs. market
−8.2 pts
CLE: Elo 65.9%, market 74.1%
Fair odds
CLE -286
TOR +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 100.5 – 109.0 CLE
Posted spread, posted total 209.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORCLEWhy
Team rating15491598Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−1+28TOR: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsCLE +114 EloCLE 65.9%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 73.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 72.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 74.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatCLE
21st of 30114.6Points scored119.54th of 30
9th of 30111.8Points allowed115.415th of 30
11th of 30+2.8Margin+4.19th of 30
15th of 30113.9Offense rating117.05th of 30
6th of 30111.1Defense rating112.915th of 30
21st of 30100.1Pace101.713th of 30
11th of 306–4Last 107–36th of 30
10th of 3022–19Road vs home27–149th of 30
14th of 301500Opponent Elo149128th of 30
13th of 301549Elo rating15989th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Raptors

−1 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Cavaliers

+28 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RaptorsCavaliers
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORCLE
Against the spread47–4135–53
Last 107–35–5
Favorite26–2327–46
Underdog21–188–7
Overs–unders36–5244–44
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 7–9 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.