Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints26
- James HardenAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists14
- RJ BarrettRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game110–112
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime110–112
- OT0.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound110–112
- OT0.6Evan Mobley misses 28-foot three point jumper110–112
- OT1.2Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen110–112
- OT1.2Cavaliers Full timeout110–112
- OT1.2RJ Barrett makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)110–112
- OT10.9Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus110–109
- OT10.9Jarrett Allen enters the game for Dennis Schroder110–109
- OT10.9Jamal Shead enters the game for A.J. Lawson110–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:54Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)CLE 99 – 103 TOR · TOR 58% → 84% +26TOR 58% → 84%+26 pts
- Q41:42Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 102 – 103 TOR · CLE 15% → 42% +27CLE 15% → 42%+27 pts
- Q411.6Evan Mobley makes two point shot (Max Strus assists)CLE 104 – 104 TOR · CLE 5% → 51% +46CLE 5% → 51%+46 pts
- OT33.7Donovan Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shotCLE 110 – 108 TOR · CLE 52% → 84% +33CLE 52% → 84%+33 pts
- OT1.2RJ Barrett makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)CLE 110 – 112 TOR · TOR <1% → >99% +99TOR <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -198 / TOR +164
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -175
- TOR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.5 – 107.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +48 Elo | CLE 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 10th of 301604 | Elo rating | 154314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–52 | 46–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–45 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44 | 35–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–6 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
- Apr 29TOR 120 @ CLE 125PlayoffsPicked CLE 77%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 89 @ TOR 93PlayoffsPicked CLE 62%Miss
- Apr 23CLE 104 @ TOR 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 57%Miss
- Apr 20TOR 105 @ CLE 115PlayoffsPicked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 18TOR 113 @ CLE 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 24CLE 99 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss