Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- James HardenAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–126
- Q420.9Keon Ellis defensive rebound113–126
- Q423.6Jamison Battle misses 23-foot three point jumper113–126
- Q433.6Gradey Dick defensive rebound113–126
- Q435.7Jaylon Tyson misses driving floating jump shot113–126
- Q452.9Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2113–126
- Q452.9Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 1 of 2112–126
- Q452.9Nae'Qwan Tomlin shooting foul111–126
- Q41:02Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive foul turnover111–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:03Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)TOR 27 – 22 CLE · TOR 31% → 37% +6TOR 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q146.4Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 31 – 31 CLE · CLE 67% → 73% +6CLE 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q28:00Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 39 – 39 CLE · TOR 22% → 28% +6TOR 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q24:54Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 42 – 44 CLE · TOR 19% → 25% +6TOR 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q24:41Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 42 – 47 CLE · CLE 75% → 81% +6CLE 75% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML TOR +295 / CLE -375
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.1%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -312
- TOR +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +17 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +101 Elo | CLE 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 14th of 301533 | Elo rating | 16158th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–39 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–50 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Nov 24CLE 99 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 126 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 24TOR 108 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Oct 23CLE 136 @ TOR 106Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 10CLE 119 @ TOR 95Picked CLE 81%Hit