Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyson EtiennePoints20
- Malachi SmithAssists6
- Chaney JohnsonRebounds13
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints26
- Scottie BarnesAssists12
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–136
- Q416.1Tyson Etienne makes 24-foot running jump shot (Chaney Johnson assists)101–136
- Q419.7Malachi Smith defensive rebound98–136
- Q422.9Trayce Jackson-Davis misses 2-foot two point shot98–136
- Q442.5Garrett Temple defensive rebound98–136
- Q445.6Trevon Scott misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot98–136
- Q452.8Garrett Temple makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)98–136
- Q41:04Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound98–133
- Q41:07Tyson Etienne misses 26-foot three point jumper98–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:34E.J. Liddell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malachi Smith assists)BKN 3 – 0 TOR · BKN 5% → 7% +2BKN 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q110:28Malachi Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 6 – 0 TOR · BKN 7% → 10% +2BKN 7% → 10%+2 pts
- Q19:24Jakob Poeltl makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)BKN 8 – 4 TOR · TOR 90% → 92% +2TOR 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q17:18E.J. Liddell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)BKN 11 – 10 TOR · BKN 5% → 7% +2BKN 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q22:53Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)BKN 54 – 63 TOR · TOR 95% → 97% +2TOR 95% → 97%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 95%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -23.5
- ML BKN +1800 / TOR -5000
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -13.5
- TOR 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 89.6%, market 94.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -1863
- BKN +1863 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 97.5 – 121.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1275 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +39 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −27, Nic Claxton −5 · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +375 Elo | TOR 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 93.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 93.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 94.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +2.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 111.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–32 | Road vs home | 23–1715th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 29th of 301275 | Elo rating | 152914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−34 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe left thumb−27 Elo
- Nic Claxton finger injury−5 Elo
Raptors
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–43 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 32–42 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 31–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Dec 21TOR 81 @ BKN 96Picked TOR 58%Miss
- Nov 23BKN 109 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 83%Hit
- Nov 11TOR 119 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 79%Hit
- Apr 6TOR 120 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 26TOR 116 @ BKN 86Picked BKN 55%Miss
- Jan 1BKN 113 @ TOR 130Picked TOR 52%Hit
- Dec 19BKN 101 @ TOR 94Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Apr 10TOR 102 @ BKN 106Picked BKN 75%Hit