Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jamir WatkinsPoints24
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Anthony GillRebounds6
Cavaliers- Nae'Qwan TomlinPoints26
- Tyrese ProctorAssists8
- Tyrese ProctorRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–130
- Q47.5Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot running dunk (Will Riley assists)117–130
- Q48.1Will Riley defensive rebound115–130
- Q411.8Riley Minix misses 23-foot three point jumper115–130
- Q433.2Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound115–130
- Q436.2Sharife Cooper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot115–130
- Q444.4Nae'Qwan Tomlin kicked ball violation115–130
- Q451.7Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three pointer115–130
- Q41:06Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound115–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:26Sharife Cooper makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)WSH 93 – 95 CLE · WSH 17% → 26% +9WSH 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q48:35Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 103 – 110 CLE · CLE 80% → 89% +9CLE 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q48:03Jamir Watkins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Sharife Cooper assists)WSH 106 – 110 CLE · WSH 11% → 20% +9WSH 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q47:46Riley Minix makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)WSH 106 – 113 CLE · CLE 80% → 89% +9CLE 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q46:09Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 111 – 116 CLE · WSH 7% → 15% +8WSH 7% → 15%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML WSH +380 / CLE -500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 86.0%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -400
- WSH +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1221 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −129 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −7, Cam Whitmore −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +315 Elo | CLE 86.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 90.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 89.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 119.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.8 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.2 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–34 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301221 | Elo rating | 16128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−17 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee contusion−7 Elo
- Cam Whitmore right shoulder−2 Elo
Cavaliers
−129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–48 | 32–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 31–45 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 46–35 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–11 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 11.
- Feb 11WSH 113 @ CLE 138Picked CLE 89%Hit
- Dec 12CLE 130 @ WSH 126Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Nov 7CLE 148 @ WSH 115Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 134 @ WSH 124Picked CLE 93%Hit
- Dec 13WSH 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Dec 3WSH 87 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Oct 26CLE 135 @ WSH 116Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Feb 25CLE 114 @ WSH 105Picked CLE 80%Hit