Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists11
- RJ BarrettRebounds12
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints23
- James HardenAssists5
- James HardenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q41.8Max Strus enters the game for Dean Wade120–125
- Q41.8Cavaliers Full timeout120–125
- Q41.8RJ Barrett steps out of bounds turnover120–125
- Q41.8Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter120–125
- Q42.4Raptors Full timeout120–125
- Q42.5Scottie Barnes defensive rebound120–125
- Q42.7Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2120–125
- Q42.7Cavaliers offensive team rebound120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q330.5Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 103 – 98 CLE · CLE 33% → 44% +12CLE 33% → 44%+12 pts
- Q410:56Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 103 – 103 CLE · CLE 51% → 64% +13CLE 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q410:21Evan Mobley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 103 – 106 CLE · CLE 63% → 75% +12CLE 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q46:37Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 108 – 113 CLE · CLE 71% → 83% +13CLE 71% → 83%+13 pts
- Q46:21Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three pointer (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 111 – 113 CLE · TOR 16% → 29% +13TOR 16% → 29%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML TOR +310 / CLE -395
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.1%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -327
- TOR +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 105.0 – 114.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +20 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +85 Elo | CLE 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 12th of 301548 | Elo rating | 159910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–41 | 35–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–52 | 42–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–8 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Apr 26CLE 89 @ TOR 93PlayoffsPicked CLE 62%Miss
- Apr 23CLE 104 @ TOR 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 57%Miss
- Apr 20TOR 105 @ CLE 115PlayoffsPicked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 18TOR 113 @ CLE 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 24CLE 99 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit