Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints26
- Scottie BarnesAssists5
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q43.3RJ Barrett makes driving layup105–115
- Q48.3Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound103–115
- Q410.1James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2103–115
- Q410.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2103–115
- Q410.1Scottie Barnes personal foul103–114
- Q416.5James Harden defensive rebound103–114
- Q419.2Scottie Barnes misses driving layup103–114
- Q425.8Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:09James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 40 – 47 CLE · CLE 81% → 86% +5CLE 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q410:41Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)TOR 77 – 87 CLE · CLE 87% → 93% +6CLE 87% → 93%+6 pts
- Q49:39Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 80 – 90 CLE · CLE 88% → 94% +6CLE 88% → 94%+6 pts
- Q46:46Sandro Mamukelashvili makes driving layup (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 86 – 92 CLE · TOR 8% → 13% +5TOR 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q46:26Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 86 – 95 CLE · CLE 87% → 94% +7CLE 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML TOR +350 / CLE -455
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.7%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -369
- TOR +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 106.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +22 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +129 Elo | CLE 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 15th of 301525 | Elo rating | 16238th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–40 | 34–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 26–42 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–50 | 41–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–7 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 18TOR 113 @ CLE 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 24CLE 99 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 126 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 24TOR 108 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Oct 23CLE 136 @ TOR 106Picked CLE 68%Hit