Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints20
- James HardenAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–93
- Q41.5Scottie Barnes defensive rebound89–93
- Q41.5Max Strus misses 33-foot three point jumper89–93
- Q43.8Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 289–93
- Q43.8Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 289–92
- Q43.8Max Strus personal take foul89–91
- Q44.2(00:04.2) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)89–91
- Q44.6Sam Merrill makes 22-foot jumper (James Harden assists)89–91
- Q46.3Sam Merrill enters the game for Dean Wade87–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:36Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)CLE 84 – 82 TOR · TOR 12% → 30% +18TOR 12% → 30%+18 pts
- Q42:10Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 87 – 82 TOR · CLE 71% → 90% +19CLE 71% → 90%+19 pts
- Q448.8RJ Barrett makes 5-foot two point shotCLE 87 – 86 TOR · TOR 11% → 33% +22TOR 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q434.6Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 87 – 87 TOR · TOR 31% → 49% +18TOR 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q434.6Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2CLE 87 – 88 TOR · TOR 49% → 67% +18TOR 49% → 67%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -185 / TOR +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -165
- TOR +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.5 – 107.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +23 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 9th of 301606 | Elo rating | 154114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–50 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 42–43 | 34–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–5 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Apr 23CLE 104 @ TOR 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 57%Miss
- Apr 20TOR 105 @ CLE 115PlayoffsPicked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 18TOR 113 @ CLE 126PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 24CLE 99 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 126 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 86%Hit