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Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Pistons

60-22

93–79

at

Home

Magic

45-37

DET 59%ORL 41%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.

ORL favored DET favored95 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4ORL50%DET

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pistons
Magic

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game93–79
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–79
  • Q43.9shot clock turnover93–79
  • Q427.3Tobias Harris defensive rebound93–79
  • Q430.0Paolo Banchero misses 28-foot running jump shot93–79
  • Q435.3Desmond Bane defensive rebound93–79
  • Q436.6Daniss Jenkins misses driving layup93–79
  • Q456.9Pistons defensive team rebound93–79
  • Q458.1Tristan da Silva misses driving layup93–79
  • Q41:12Tobias Harris makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)93–79

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q35:01Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DET 54 – 67 ORL · ORL 77% → 84% +7
  2. Q411:08Cade Cunningham makes 10-foot two point shotDET 66 – 71 ORL · DET 26% → 33% +7
  3. Q410:26Cade Cunningham makes 19-foot pullup jump shotDET 68 – 72 ORL · DET 29% → 37% +8
  4. Q47:36Cade Cunningham makes running layupDET 72 – 72 ORL · DET 43% → 54% +10
  5. Q44:07Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 83 – 75 ORL · DET 83% → 93% +10

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pistons 59%

LeanHit
DET 59%ORL 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
DET -3.5
ML DET -162 / ORL +136
Pre-line forecast
DET 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -3.5
DET 64%
Ratings vs. market
+4.4 pts
DET: Elo 63.7%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
DET -146
ORL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 107.0 – 103.5 ORL
Posted spread, posted total 210.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETORLWhy
Team rating16211545Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+50−8DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsDET +98 EloDET 63.7%
Market-implied ratingsDET 65.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 65.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatORL
8th of 30117.8Points scored115.715th of 30
3rd of 30109.6Points allowed115.113th of 30
2nd of 30+8.2Margin+0.617th of 30
10th of 30115.5Offense rating112.619th of 30
2nd of 30107.4Defense rating112.012th of 30
16th of 30101.3Pace102.012th of 30
3rd of 308–2Last 107–36th of 30
3rd of 3028–13Road vs home25–1512th of 30
30th of 301488Opponent Elo150014th of 30
6th of 301621Elo rating154514th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pistons

+50 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Magic

−8 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PistonsMagic
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETORL
Against the spread45–4242–45
Last 104–67–3
Favorite32–4022–29
Underdog13–220–16
Overs–unders41–4646–41
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 5–11 ORL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.