Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Wendell Carter Jr.Assists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints39
- Cade CunninghamAssists4
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–101
- Q412.6Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound112–101
- Q412.6Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point jumper112–101
- Q420.7Wendell Carter Jr. makes running dunk (Franz Wagner assists)112–101
- Q423.8Tobias Harris lost ball turnover (Wendell Carter Jr. steals)110–101
- Q439.5Wendell Carter Jr. makes driving layup (Franz Wagner assists)110–101
- Q41:03Cade Cunningham makes driving layup108–101
- Q41:12Tobias Harris defensive rebound108–99
- Q41:12Paolo Banchero misses 10-foot pullup jump shot108–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:09Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 77 – 68 DET · ORL 55% → 65% +10ORL 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q410:20Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)ORL 85 – 81 DET · DET 33% → 46% +13DET 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q49:51Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointerORL 88 – 81 DET · ORL 55% → 68% +13ORL 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:54Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three pointerORL 90 – 86 DET · DET 30% → 43% +14DET 30% → 43%+14 pts
- Q46:39Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 99 – 92 DET · ORL 61% → 76% +15ORL 61% → 76%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML ORL +310 / DET -395
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 76.1%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -327
- ORL +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.0 – 114.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +49 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +201 Elo | DET 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 17th of 301514 | Elo rating | 16526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 31–36 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 8–3 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit
- Nov 23DET 100 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 78%Hit
- Mar 3DET 91 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 75%Hit