Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Paul ReedPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Cade CunninghamRebounds8
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints21
- Quenton JacksonAssists8
- Micah PotterRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–121
- Q42.6shot clock turnover133–121
- Q426.0Tolu Smith defensive rebound133–121
- Q428.4Kobe Brown misses two point shot133–121
- Q443.6Ronald Holland II makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot133–121
- Q41:06Ronald Holland II defensive rebound130–121
- Q41:08Ethan Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2130–121
- Q41:08Ethan Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2130–121
- Q41:08Ronald Holland II shooting foul130–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:42Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 9 – 4 IND · DET 90% → 92% +3DET 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q26:42Kobe Brown makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ethan Thompson assists)DET 52 – 47 IND · IND 7% → 10% +3IND 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q25:56Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 57 – 47 IND · DET 92% → 95% +3DET 92% → 95%+3 pts
- Q42:21Kam Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)DET 126 – 120 IND · IND <1% → 5% +4IND <1% → 5%+4 pts
- Q41:57Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three pointerDET 129 – 120 IND · DET 96% → >99% +3DET 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -16.5
- ML DET -1200 / IND +750
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10
- DET 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- DET: Elo 83.3%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -785
- IND +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 124.5 – 108.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −25 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −20 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +279 Elo | DET 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 85.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 85.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | −7.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 108.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–13 | Road vs home | 11–2929th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 5th of 301648 | Elo rating | 136424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−25 Elo- T.J. McConnell hamstring−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–37 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–7 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Jan 17IND 78 @ DET 121Picked DET 87%Hit
- Nov 24DET 122 @ IND 117Picked DET 77%Hit
- Nov 17IND 112 @ DET 127Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 29DET 119 @ IND 133Picked IND 65%Hit
- Jan 16IND 111 @ DET 100Picked IND 53%Hit
- Nov 29DET 130 @ IND 106Picked IND 63%Miss
- Oct 23IND 115 @ DET 109Picked IND 66%Hit
- Mar 20IND 122 @ DET 103Picked IND 61%Hit