Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Cade CunninghamRebounds9
Magic- Desmond BanePoints22
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–94
- Q43.4Isaiah Stewart makes tip shot88–94
- Q44.5Isaiah Stewart offensive rebound86–94
- Q46.0Cade Cunningham misses running pullup jump shot86–94
- Q410.9Cade Cunningham defensive rebound86–94
- Q411.5Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 2 of 286–94
- Q411.5Magic offensive team rebound86–94
- Q411.5Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 286–94
- Q411.5Cade Cunningham personal take foul86–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:50Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 69 – 73 ORL · ORL 48% → 60% +12ORL 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q46:45Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)DET 80 – 85 ORL · ORL 57% → 73% +15ORL 57% → 73%+15 pts
- Q45:24Ausar Thompson makes driving layupDET 85 – 85 ORL · DET 41% → 53% +12DET 41% → 53%+12 pts
- Q44:55Jamal Cain makes tip in dunkDET 85 – 87 ORL · ORL 47% → 60% +13ORL 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q41:16Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three point shotDET 86 – 92 ORL · ORL 82% → 97% +15ORL 82% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -166 / ORL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 59.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -150
- ORL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.0 – 105.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +29 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +69 Elo | DET 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 30 |
| 30th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 6th of 301626 | Elo rating | 153915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–40 | 40–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–38 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 40–45 | 45–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–10 ORL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Apr 25DET 105 @ ORL 113PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 83 @ DET 98PlayoffsPicked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 19ORL 112 @ DET 101PlayoffsPicked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit