Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints19
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Tobias HarrisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–98
- Q40.5Ronald Holland II defensive rebound83–98
- Q44.3Jett Howard misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot83–98
- Q46.9shot clock turnover83–98
- Q429.0Ronald Holland II defensive rebound83–98
- Q430.7Jevon Carter misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot83–98
- Q443.2Noah Penda defensive rebound83–98
- Q445.5Duncan Robinson misses free throw 2 of 283–98
- Q445.5Ronald Holland II enters the game for Tobias Harris83–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q151.1Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 21 – 25 DET · DET 74% → 79% +5DET 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q27:05Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 30 – 33 DET · ORL 18% → 24% +6ORL 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q24:29Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 35 – 35 DET · ORL 24% → 31% +7ORL 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q22:01Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 41 – 41 DET · ORL 24% → 31% +7ORL 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q311:38Tobias Harris makes 12-foot step back jumpshot (Ausar Thompson assists)ORL 46 – 48 DET · DET 68% → 73% +5DET 68% → 73%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML ORL +275 / DET -345
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DET: Elo 70.5%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -291
- ORL +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +46 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +151 Elo | DET 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 15th of 301534 | Elo rating | 16327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–44 | 44–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 39–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 9–3 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Apr 19ORL 112 @ DET 101PlayoffsPicked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit
- Nov 23DET 100 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 78%Hit