Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints25
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–113
- Q47.8Paolo Banchero defensive rebound105–113
- Q411.6Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–113
- Q419.5Jalen Suggs out of bounds bad pass turnover105–113
- Q426.4Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound105–113
- Q429.8Cade Cunningham misses 29-foot three point jumper105–113
- Q434.3(00:34.3) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Magic] retain their timeout105–113
- Q434.3Magic Full timeout105–113
- Q438.8Pistons Full timeout105–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:02Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerDET 98 – 104 ORL · ORL 70% → 85% +16ORL 70% → 85%+16 pts
- Q43:43Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 101 – 104 ORL · DET 14% → 29% +16DET 14% → 29%+16 pts
- Q43:15Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointerDET 104 – 104 ORL · DET 28% → 51% +23DET 28% → 51%+23 pts
- Q42:30Franz Wagner makes 15-foot step back jumpshotDET 105 – 106 ORL · ORL 40% → 58% +18ORL 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q41:46Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DET 105 – 109 ORL · ORL 60% → 86% +26ORL 60% → 86%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -125 / ORL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- DET: Elo 63.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- ORL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.5 – 107.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +25 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +99 Elo | DET 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 30 |
| 30th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 6th of 301639 | Elo rating | 152716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–39 | 39–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45 | 44–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–9 ORL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Apr 22ORL 83 @ DET 98PlayoffsPicked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 19ORL 112 @ DET 101PlayoffsPicked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit