Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints45
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints45
- Ausar ThompsonAssists6
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–116
- Q43.0Tobias Harris steps out of bounds turnover109–116
- Q48.9Tobias Harris defensive rebound109–116
- Q413.1Paolo Banchero misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot109–116
- Q422.9Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2109–116
- Q422.9Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins109–115
- Q422.9Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson109–115
- Q422.9Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2109–115
- Q422.9Jalen Suggs personal foul109–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:50Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 69 – 71 DET · ORL 18% → 24% +7ORL 18% → 24%+7 pts
- Q36:57Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)ORL 69 – 76 DET · DET 80% → 86% +6DET 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q33:42Anthony Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 76 – 82 DET · ORL 10% → 16% +6ORL 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q43:24Paolo Banchero makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 104 – 110 DET · ORL 2% → 8% +6ORL 2% → 8%+6 pts
- Q41:09Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 109 – 112 DET · ORL 2% → 13% +11ORL 2% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -11.5
- ML ORL +350 / DET -455
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- DET: Elo 71.5%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -369
- ORL +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 99.5 – 111.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +50 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +159 Elo | DET 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 12th of 301549 | Elo rating | 16167th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–45 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 45–41 | 40–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 11–4 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Apr 27DET 88 @ ORL 94PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Miss
- Apr 25DET 105 @ ORL 113PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 83 @ DET 98PlayoffsPicked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 19ORL 112 @ DET 101PlayoffsPicked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss