Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints38
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–116
- Q416.7shot clock turnover94–116
- Q440.7Chaz Lanier makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)94–116
- Q41:03Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 294–114
- Q41:03Chaz Lanier enters the game for Daniss Jenkins93–114
- Q41:03Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 293–114
- Q41:03Javonte Green shooting foul92–114
- Q41:13Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 292–114
- Q41:13Tolu Smith enters the game for Duncan Robinson92–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:56Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerORL 35 – 31 DET · ORL 33% → 40% +7ORL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q24:44Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 40 – 38 DET · ORL 29% → 36% +7ORL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q23:49Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 43 – 40 DET · ORL 32% → 39% +8ORL 32% → 39%+8 pts
- Q23:27Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)ORL 43 – 43 DET · DET 60% → 68% +8DET 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q22:30Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)ORL 45 – 48 DET · DET 68% → 75% +7DET 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML ORL +260 / DET -325
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 75.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -275
- ORL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 96.0 – 104.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 200.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +52 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +197 Elo | DET 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 15th of 301536 | Elo rating | 16296th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–46 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 11–6 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
- May 1DET 93 @ ORL 79PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Apr 29ORL 109 @ DET 116PlayoffsPicked DET 79%Hit
- Apr 27DET 88 @ ORL 94PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Miss
- Apr 25DET 105 @ ORL 113PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 83 @ DET 98PlayoffsPicked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 19ORL 112 @ DET 101PlayoffsPicked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 6DET 107 @ ORL 123Picked DET 52%Miss
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit