Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Caris LeVertPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints43
- James HardenAssists11
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–112
- Q40.1Paul Reed offensive rebound103–112
- Q43.0Paul Reed misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot103–112
- Q45.2Pistons offensive team rebound103–112
- Q48.6Marcus Sasser misses running pullup jump shot103–112
- Q411.7Evan Mobley bad pass
turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)103–112
- Q411.7Ronald Holland II vs. James Harden (Paul Reed gains possession)103–112
- Q418.0Marcus Sasser makes driving layup103–112
- Q426.0Ronald Holland II defensive rebound101–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:24Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)DET 38 – 38 CLE · CLE 50% → 58% +8CLE 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:36Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DET 45 – 41 CLE · DET 45% → 53% +8DET 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q22:48Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)DET 47 – 46 CLE · CLE 46% → 55% +8CLE 46% → 55%+8 pts
- Q21:27Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 52 – 48 CLE · DET 46% → 54% +9DET 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:28Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 56 – 60 CLE · CLE 60% → 68% +9CLE 60% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML DET +140 / CLE -166
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -150
- DET +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 105.0 – 108.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +27 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 30th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 5th of 301641 | Elo rating | 16019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–43 | 37–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 29–46 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–49 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–10 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.
- May 9DET 109 @ CLE 116PlayoffsPicked CLE 63%Hit
- May 7CLE 97 @ DET 107PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss