Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Cade CunninghamRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- James HardenAssists7
- Donovan MitchellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–116
- Q42.9Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound108–116
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham misses 25-foot three point shot108–116
- Q415.3Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2108–116
- Q415.3Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2108–115
- Q415.3Duncan Robinson personal foul108–114
- Q417.4Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound108–114
- Q420.4Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q420.4Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2108–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:34Donovan Mitchell makes running layupDET 78 – 85 CLE · CLE 69% → 82% +13CLE 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q44:57Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 100 – 100 CLE · DET 28% → 46% +18DET 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q43:14Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 103 – 104 CLE · DET 19% → 39% +20DET 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q42:28Max Strus makes running layupDET 103 – 106 CLE · CLE 62% → 78% +16CLE 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q450.2Cade Cunningham makes 28-foot three pointerDET 108 – 110 CLE · DET 2% → 20% +18DET 2% → 20%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML DET +160 / CLE -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- CLE 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 41.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -171
- DET +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 103.5 – 108.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +12 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +62 Elo | DET 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 30th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 4th of 301651 | Elo rating | 159111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–42 | 36–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 28–46 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–49 | 45–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–9 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- May 7CLE 97 @ DET 107PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit