Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each quarter. Above the line favors DET.
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML CLE +136 / DET -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 61.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -146
- CLE +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 105.5 – 109.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1644 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | DET +81 Elo | DET 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
CLE | Stat |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 9th of 301598 | Elo rating | 16445th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–54 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–46 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45 | 42–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–4 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit