Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each quarter. Above the line favors DET.
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML CLE +142 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 57.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- CLE +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 103.0 – 107.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
CLE | Stat |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 8th of 301612 | Elo rating | 16305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–55 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 36–40 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 47–46 | 44–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–5 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.
- May 11DET 103 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 60%Hit
- May 9DET 109 @ CLE 116PlayoffsPicked CLE 63%Hit
- May 7CLE 97 @ DET 107PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit