Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints23
- James HardenAssists4
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–94
- Q40.3shot clock turnover115–94
- Q424.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2115–94
- Q424.3Tolu Smith enters the game for Caris LeVert115–93
- Q424.3Cavaliers offensive team rebound115–93
- Q424.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses free throw 1 of 2115–93
- Q424.3Ronald Holland II shooting foul115–93
- Q424.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound115–93
- Q425.1Thomas Bryant misses 12-foot floating jump shot115–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:02Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)DET 54 – 51 CLE · CLE 41% → 49% +9CLE 41% → 49%+9 pts
- Q311:36Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointer (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 57 – 51 CLE · DET 51% → 60% +9DET 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q34:22Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 74 – 63 CLE · DET 71% → 79% +8DET 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q34:00Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 74 – 66 CLE · CLE 20% → 29% +8CLE 20% → 29%+8 pts
- Q32:07Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DET 78 – 68 CLE · DET 70% → 79% +9DET 70% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML DET +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- DET +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 103.0 – 106.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +32 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +34 Elo | CLE 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 30th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 5th of 301622 | Elo rating | 16206th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–45 | 39–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 48–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–12 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.
- May 13CLE 117 @ DET 113PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Miss
- May 11DET 103 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 60%Hit
- May 9DET 109 @ CLE 116PlayoffsPicked CLE 63%Hit
- May 7CLE 97 @ DET 107PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- May 5CLE 101 @ DET 111PlayoffsPicked DET 59%Hit
- Mar 3DET 109 @ CLE 113Picked DET 56%Miss
- Feb 27CLE 119 @ DET 122Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss