New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each quarter. Above the line favors CLE.
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML NY +120 / CLE -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- CLE 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 36.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- NY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.5 – 110.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1750 | 1617 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | NY +96 Elo | NY 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
NY | Stat |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301750 | Elo rating | 16175th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 52–43 | 40–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–35 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–50 | 50–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–6 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- May 21CLE 93 @ NY 109PlayoffsPicked NY 64%Hit
- May 19CLE 104 @ NY 115PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Hit
- Feb 24NY 94 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Dec 25CLE 124 @ NY 126Picked NY 62%Hit
- Oct 22CLE 111 @ NY 119Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Apr 11CLE 108 @ NY 102Picked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 2NY 105 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Feb 21NY 105 @ CLE 142Picked CLE 71%Hit