New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Miles McBridePoints25
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists10
- Josh HartRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints24
- VJ EdgecombeAssists7
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–114
- Q414.2Johni Broome makes 2-foot running dunk (Dalen Terry assists)144–114
- Q419.2Jeremy Sochan lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)144–112
- Q436.6Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound144–112
- Q440.0Johni Broome misses 26-foot three point jumper144–112
- Q444.7Pacome Dadiet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)144–112
- Q455.6Johni Broome makes 27-foot three point jumper (Justin Edwards assists)141–112
- Q41:03Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2141–109
- Q41:03Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 1 of 2140–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:39Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 5 – 2 PHI · NY 53% → 59% +6NY 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q19:29Josh Hart makes 27-foot three pointer (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 8 – 4 PHI · NY 55% → 62% +6NY 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q18:21Miles McBride makes 25-foot running jump shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 11 – 4 PHI · NY 62% → 68% +6NY 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q17:50Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 14 – 6 PHI · NY 64% → 70% +6NY 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q17:31Miles McBride makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 17 – 6 PHI · NY 70% → 75% +5NY 70% → 75%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- NY: Elo 63.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.5 – 106.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1722 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +47 | NY: Usual rotation · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +95 Elo | NY 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301722 | Elo rating | 154313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–43 | 50–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–35 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 43–49 | 44–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 16–5 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.
- May 8NY 108 @ PHI 94PlayoffsPicked PHI 58%Miss
- May 6PHI 102 @ NY 108PlayoffsPicked NY 79%Hit
- May 4PHI 98 @ NY 137PlayoffsPicked NY 71%Hit
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit