Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints38
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game104–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime104–115
- OT0.9shot clock turnover104–115
- OT23.6Jalen Brunson defensive rebound104–115
- OT26.5Evan Mobley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–115
- OT29.4OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2104–115
- OT29.4Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns104–114
- OT29.4OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2104–114
- OT29.4Donovan Mitchell personal foul104–113
- OT30.9Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Josh Hart104–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:38Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 97 – 93 NY · NY 7% → 22% +14NY 7% → 22%+14 pts
- Q41:14Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CLE 99 – 96 NY · NY 3% → 18% +15NY 3% → 18%+15 pts
- Q445.0Landry Shamet makes 22-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)CLE 99 – 99 NY · NY 12% → 52% +41NY 12% → 52%+41 pts
- Q431.1James Harden makes 10-foot turnaround jump shotCLE 101 – 99 NY · CLE 48% → 83% +35CLE 48% → 83%+35 pts
- Q419.3Jalen Brunson makes 2-foot two point shotCLE 101 – 101 NY · NY 11% → 52% +41NY 11% → 52%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML CLE +200 / NY -245
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NY: Elo 69.1%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -213
- CLE +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 105.5 – 112.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1737 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +23 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +140 Elo | NY 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 5th of 301630 | Elo rating | 17372nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–56 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–47 | 40–35 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 49–47 | 44–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–4 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Feb 24NY 94 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Dec 25CLE 124 @ NY 126Picked NY 62%Hit
- Oct 22CLE 111 @ NY 119Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Apr 11CLE 108 @ NY 102Picked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 2NY 105 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Feb 21NY 105 @ CLE 142Picked CLE 71%Hit
- Oct 28CLE 110 @ NY 104Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 3NY 107 @ CLE 98Picked CLE 56%Miss